Based on March’s Demand Trends webinar featuring Bob Atkins, CEO of Gray Decision Intelligence, we’ve answered five critical questions that define the current state of student demand and program health.
1. Is the “Demographic Cliff” really to blame for enrollment declines?
Many institutions attribute lower numbers to the “demographic cliff,” the projected decline in the 18-year-old population. However, data shows that bachelor’s enrollment actually ticked up by two percent recently. The real “cliff” isn’t just about population size; it’s a “headwind” of about one percent a year that can be overcome with better communication about the value of a college degree.
The more urgent issue is that fewer people are choosing college. About two percent fewer 18-to-24-year-olds are entering higher education across all ethnicities, with the sharpest decline seen among white men. To combat this, institutions must improve their messaging, specifically showing employment outcomes, to remind prospective students that college remains a valuable investment.
2. Why are Google search volumes for programs dropping so sharply?
Google keyword searches for higher education programs are down a staggering 26 percent year-over-year. While this might look like a loss of interest, it more likely represents a fundamental shift in how students seek information.
Instead of traditional keyword searches, students are increasingly turning to AI-driven search tools (such as ChatGPT or Gemini) to explore their options. This means your SEO strategy must evolve; interest isn’t disappearing, it’s just moving to platforms where traditional keyword data can’t yet track it.
3. Where is the strongest growth in student demand right now?
If you are looking for growth, look toward certificates. Undergraduate certificate programs saw a robust seven percent increase in enrollment year-over-year.
Specific programs showing massive five-year average annual growth include:
- Cybersecurity: Consistently one of the strongest growers, up 18 percent.
- Data & Business Analytics: Data Science enrollment has grown 30 percent annually over the last five years.
- Skilled Trades: Programs like Airframe Mechanic (up 16 percent) and HVAC are seeing a resurgence due to high employer demand, according to Gray Decision Intelligence founder Bob Atkins.
- Mental Health: Master’s-level interest is surging in areas like psychiatric nursing and clinical social work.
4. How concerned should we be about international student demand?
There is a “genuine cliff” in international demand, and it is self-inflicted. International page views dropped 60 percent in February alone, “largely due to tighter visa policies and a perception that the US is less welcoming,” Atkins says.
This decline represents an estimated $8.5 billion loss in tuition revenue for the US. economy. Master’s programs in fields like Computer Science, where international students often make up the majority of the cohort, will continue to be hit the hardest.
5. Is AI actually “taking all the jobs” and rendering degrees obsolete?
Despite the headlines, US job postings are still growing. While some companies cite AI as a reason for mass layoffs, many experts believe this is “AI washing,” using the trend to mask traditional business problems or divisional shutdowns.
Rather than replacing humans entirely, AI is creating a demand for “AI-literate” graduates. Even in the humanities, there is a new role for quantitative analysis using AI to study language and literature, keeping liberal arts students competitive in a tech-driven job market.
The Bottom Line: The world is changing too fast for the “once-every-five-years” program review model. To stay relevant, institutions must evaluate their program portfolios at least once a year and align their offerings with rapid fluctuations in student and employer demand.
Stay ahead of shifting student demand and program trends. Join our monthly Higher Education Demand Trends webinar for the latest insights and what they mean for your institution.
