A Higher Ed Trend Worth Watching: On-Ground Completions Are Growing Faster Than Online
Here is a trend we did not expect to see buried in the new 2025 IPEDS completions data:
On-ground completions are now growing faster than online completions. It is the first time that has happened since 2014. Seriously.
I don’t mean to sound alarmist. Online completions are still growing. They increased by approximately four percent year over year, reaching nearly 1.36 million. In comparison, on-ground completions grew approximately five percent, rising to more than 4.44 million, making it the winner in percentage growth, even if it is only by one percent.
Is the Boom Over for Online College Programs?
Not necessarily.
Online education remains substantially larger than it was in 2020, when completions totaled about 840,000. By 2025, that number had climbed to more than 1.35 million.
What has changed is the relative pace of growth.
That distinction matters for institutions making decisions about modality. A few years ago, simply moving a program online might have looked like a growth strategy.
Today, the better question is: Where are the students for this specific program, and how do they want to learn?
Online demand varies dramatically by program, geography, credential level, and student population.
The takeaway: Online is still growing, but modality alone is not an enrollment strategy. Institutions need to evaluate the demand for the program and the format together.
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